The second tennis Major of the year is finally here!
Or, in other words, it's that time on the tennis calendar I’ve looked forward to as a fan for over a decade. There was really nothing quite like coming home from school during summer, grabbing your favorite snack, and gluing yourself to the TV, with no intention of ever touching grass.
In that spirit, I’ve decided to rank the top players in tiers, based on my expectations for their performance and their chances of lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires.
Note: Players within a tier are listed chronologically to avoid unnecessary debate.
Tier 1: 8 June, 2025
Don't mess this up, and give us what could be the most anticipated Slam final of the post–Big Three era.
Carlos Alcaraz:
The defending champion and best player on this surface. And although he’s been hot and cold this season, there’s no reason, given his weapons and the current field, why Carlos shouldn’t be fighting for the trophy come the final weekend.
What I like:
A lot, still. He’s comfortably the best mover on this surface, possesses the highest upside, and with the retirement of a certain someone, now arguably has the most single-handedly game-changing shot in tennis, especially on clay. Almost every match he plays is on his terms. The best-of-five format gives him room to find his rhythm if he starts off, or simply wear down his opponents, as indicated by his otherworldly record in matches that go to a fifth set.
And let’s not forget: he has the most natural and complete secondary skills set in the game right now. The forehand drop shot is back to cheat-code levels, the defensive slices are always reliable — it’s just a matter of him putting together, if not all, at least most of these tools across what should be, at most, five real matches… and two glorified warm-ups.
What I don’t like:
The backhand remains a question mark, and the serve is probably as reliable as the team would have expected it to be by now.
There’s also a worrying tendency not to play true clay-court tennis at times, to ignore the full breadth of his toolkit, which feels like a storm cloud that could eventually catch up with him.
And then, of course, there are the injuries. The recurring niggles have almost become an annual storyline now, and the lower-body issues in particular are never a good sign, especially on the most physically demanding surface in the game.
Jannik Sinner:
The world No. 1. When you have the highest floor on tour, are firmly in your prime, and carry no major weaknesses, that’s more than enough to me to make you a top contender for any title, on any surface.
What I like:
Nothing, next.
Okay, jokes aside — it’s the stability. A consistently high level that almost guarantees he won't get upset. A serve that seems to improve with every match. And the fact that he’s the best baseliner in the world. Both wings are rock solid, and his movement on clay has improved to the point where it’s no longer a negative.
On top of that, he’s just come off a three-month, surface-specific block designed to refine his clay game — while many of his peers have spent that time grinding through the tour and wearing themselves down.
People (yes, you got me) love to bring up his underwhelming clay résumé — one 250 title and a single Roland Garros semifinal — as evidence he’s not built for this surface. But that’s fool’s gold. He was arguably the second-best player in the tournament last year, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t match — or even improve on — that result this time around.
What I don’t like:
I do think match practice is a bit overrated, but a three-month break is bound to leave some rust. His record in five-setters is still spooky, though that only becomes relevant if someone manages to drag him into a fifth. His secondary skills remain a work in progress, and while they can improve, there’s only so much you can do.
This isn’t exactly a weakness, but more of a chink in the armor: when stretched to his forehand side, especially with high topspin or sharp angles, his reply tends to get neutralized. Similarly, changes of pace, like high loopy balls or low slices, still seem more effective against him than straightforward, linear hitting.
Tier 2: History on the line
Self-explanatory. Both players are not at their best level, but in a best-of-five setting on the Parisian clay, I still think they will be relevant—one motivated to finally break through, the other aiming to stand alone where no one has ever reached.
Alexander Zverev:
A finalist last year and a semifinalist in each of the past four editions — even if his form this season has been shaky, I still think he can be a factor here, before the inevitable fall off hits in a year or two.
What should help him:
The serve is still a major weapon — even if the numbers aren’t quite as strong as last season — and the backhand remains his ever-reliable bailout option. Physically, he’s still a huge challenge for opponents, rarely showing any real signs of fatigue.
What can set him back:
The forehand remains a question mark, and the return has noticeably declined since the ankle injury. But ultimately, it’s what goes on between the ears that continues to hold him back on the biggest stages, as reflected in his poor Slam record against top-10 opponents and in semifinals and beyond.
The results this year also suggest that his best tennis is likely behind him, rather than still to come.
Novak Djokovic:
A three-time champion, shaped by his legendary battles with the legends now gone on these courts. He’s nowhere near his peak anymore, but you can’t help but wonder: does he have one last Houdini act left in him at this level?
What I like:
A game built on having no real weakness is still one of the most fundamentally sound in the sport. The backhand remains nuclear, the serve is rock-solid, and the return should more than hold up on this surface. Oh, and he’s a three-time champion here, holds a favorable head-to-head against the bookies’ favorite, and — on his day — can still deliver four hours of suffocating, unrelenting tennis.
The intangibles are there too. He’s one of the few players who genuinely believes he can win this tournament.
What I don’t like:
Is the motivation still there? His body isn’t the freak of nature it once was — due to age, wear, and a mix of factors. You have to wonder: Does he really want to grind it out on clay for hours against a lower-ranked opponent he would’ve brushed aside 20 months ago? The fact that he can no longer simply click into lockdown mode like he once did doesn’t help either.
Geneva might offer some match play, but it’s doubtful that alone is enough. Tactically, angled forehands remain the key. Anything linear tends to come right back with interest. But ultimately, the biggest questions are abstract and tied to the number next to his age.
Tier 3-A: Next in line
Do I think any of these players can win the tournament? No.
Will any of them win it? Also probably not.
But they’re the best of the rest.
For some, this tournament is just a year too early. For others, they might simply not have enough to break through.
Casper Ruud:
A two-time finalist, he finally broke the “no big titles” curse and still sits inside the top 10. I don’t think he’s ever winning this tournament — but on his day, he can push just about anyone hard enough to still command respect on clay.
What I like:
The forehand looked close to its best levels in Madrid — gone were the excessively loopy shots he was tossing up earlier in the season. He’s also the most experienced clay-court player among the post-1995 generation, and that counts for something.
His serve is underrated, and he’s one of the few players who actually leans into clay-court tennis: playing with court geometry, using defensive court positioning, and understanding how to flip pressure in longer rallies.
What I don’t like:
The backhand was never elite, and now even the forehand — his signature shot — seems to dip in confidence far more frequently. That’s a worrying combination for a game that needs it to be effective.
Honestly, Casper on Clay is like the gecko on your ceiling. You know it’s always there. You respect its weird agility, and on the right day, it might even spook you enough to scan the walls nervously. But in the end… It’s still just a gecko — mostly harmless, present, but never really threatening enough to make you leave the room.
Lorenzo Musetti
The fact that Musetti is even in this tier is a victory in itself. After a slow, injury-riddled start to the season, he’s played some of the best tennis of his career, making a Masters final and finally breaking into the top 10.
What I like:
The creative baselining is a joy to watch when he’s in full flow. Unlike many of his fellow one-handed backhanders, Musetti’s backhand isn’t a liability — in fact, it can be a real asset. His biggest strength, in my view, is his overall stability when he locks in: both wings are solid enough to trade and defend, especially with the extra time the slow clay affords.
He also almost always pulls off a few jaw-dropping gets from his backhand side — often passing shots — that leave both fans and opponents stunned.
What I don’t like:
The serve wins him close to zero free points, which adds up, especially by the business end of tournaments, where he often looks gassed. Physical durability remains a lingering question.
The forehand is shaky at times, particularly against big hitters like Alcaraz. And let’s not forget — despite the progress, he’s still Lorenzo Musetti.
Tier 3-B: Volatile high upside
This player was originally part of the broader Tier 3, but two more sluggish performances in Rome have set him back. The potential is still there, but at 22 years old, it's more about what you do than what you can do.
Holger Rune:
Is this finally the year? Rune has finally ended his two-year title drought, made his return to the top 10, and is occasionally showing the flashes of brilliance that made people rate him so highly early on. While he may never quite live up to the level of what he perceives as his “rivals,” on his day, he’s still a top player.
What I like:
His all-court game is likely modeled after Djokovic’s "no weak links" approach. The backhand is arguably A-tier, and his volleys and slices are surprisingly effective for a player of his style. The forehand defense is also solid, with excellent pace absorption and the ability to counter with defensive slices off that wing.
One thing that stands out is his competitive fire, fueled by hatred, against the best players. This is an invaluable trait. And let’s not forget the aura of Aneke Ma’am.
What I don’t like:
His brain is a ticking time bomb that you never quite know when it will explode. The forehand, while solid in attack, can also set him back at times, though clay does tend to neutralize that issue a bit.
The clay season has also been quite strange. He did finally win a tournament, but went 1-3 in the 3 Masters, with both his body and head betraying him.
His return shot itself should be good, but his return stats are surprisingly poor for a player of his caliber. I’ve been hoping that improves, but so far, it hasn’t. Additionally, he always seems to be one tough match away from physical issues, which doesn’t help his cause.
Tier 4: Here to have fun
Even these players themselves likely don’t believe they’re winning this. They’re just here to make it to the second week, explore Paris with their loved ones, munch on pain au chocolat, do their best to spoil someone else's tournament, and then head home.
Alex De Minaur:
A consistent high-floor, low-ceiling game. He'll most likely make the 4th round, but his inability to beat anyone in the top 10 makes me not want to talk about him for more than three minutes.
What I like:
Reliability. I know what I’m getting — a suffocating baseline game. He’s become more aggressive post-last year’s injury. He follows the "no weak link" approach and usually maximizes his tournaments, rarely losing to players he shouldn’t.
What I don’t like:
A lack of obvious power and X-factor in his groundstrokes. Always the bridesmaid, never the groom.
Arthur Fils:
Another up-and-coming player who I expect will one day be in at least the tier 3 conversation. His game is still raw, but the overwhelming power he possesses should keep him in the mix for the 2020s, barring any unforeseen fall-off or injury.
What I like:
Power is power, yaar. Combine that with great athleticism, and you’ve got someone who can spoil anyone’s tournament at any given stage.
What I don’t like:
Power is power, yaar. But he needs to realize that not every shot needs to be hit at 100%. He also tends to get cramped on his forehand side, something clever opponents will surely exploit.
And the second serve is… well, it’s a work in progress.
Francisco Cerundolo:
An elite weapon, a brain that can collapse at any moment, and victories against two of the top three players in the world on this surface. He's here to have fun.
What I like:
A ballistic forehand, which by now is surely top 5 in the game, especially on clay. Being a Messi fan also earns him some extra brownie points.
What I don’t like:
His brain when facing a break point. The serve is pedestrian, and the backhand is a clear target. Not much to expect here, honestly. Just let him cook.
Tier 5: Fillers
I don’t know what I’m doing here right now.
Jack Draper:
I don’t know how we’re at a point where Draper on clay should be taken seriously, but I’ll admit, at some point, I have to give his overall results this year some respect.
Tommy Paul:
He’s American—so ask yourself, how far is he really getting on this surface?
SOME DRAW NOTES:
Alcaraz should be happy, as all three of his toughest matchups—an all-time great rival and a potential banana skin—are on the other half.
Sinner has a tricky path, but it's navigable.
Zverev finally has a tough draw—I don’t see him making it beyond the quarters, if even that.
Djokovic should be able to set up a semifinal showdown with Sinner if he is at a level similar to the one he had at the Australian Open.
The winner of the Musetti-Rune fourth-round clash should make the semis, where Carlos will be waiting.
FINAL WEEKEND:
Semis:
Jannik Sinner d. Novak Djokovic in 4
Carlos Alcaraz d. Holger Rune in 4
Final:
Carlos Alcaraz d. Jannik Sinner in 5
Djokovic’s level in Geneva has looked promising enough to me to give him the nod to make the semifinals. With Rune, it’s more of a vibe thing, but with an “easy” draw, he should face only one big challenge—Musetti in the fourth round—who I think he can beat. The Alcaraz and Sinner picks are pretty straightforward.
I really think Sinner has turned the Djokovic matchup in his favor to the point where the surface shouldn’t matter. He should be able to take down an inspired, yet 38-year-old, Novak in the semis. Alcaraz should come through the Rune semifinal, as I don’t think Rune has both the consistency in his game and the stamina to keep up with Carlos in a best-of-five match.
The final could really go either way for me. I don’t expect a repeat of the Rome final. Sinner will be much better. I’m picking Alcaraz because he’s simply the better clay-court player.